Trading Research

Activate when user requests:
- Current crypto prices or market data
- Technical analysis (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.)
- DCA strategy planning or schedule calculation
- Position sizing with risk management
- Market scanning for opportunities
- Whale tracking or large order monitoring
- Trading strategy advice or risk assessment

## Core Philosophy

- **Conservative first**: Preserve capital, minimize risk
- **DCA-focused**: Time in market > timing the market
- **Risk management**: Never risk more than 1-2% per trade
- **Data-driven**: Use technical indicators for confirmation, not prediction
- **Transparent**: Show calculations, explain reasoning

## Available Tools

### 1. Market Data (`binance_market.py`)

Fetch real-time Binance market data.

**Use when**: User asks for price, volume, orderbook, recent trades, or funding rates.

**Common commands**:
```bash
# Current price and 24h stats (default)
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT

# Orderbook depth
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --orderbook --depth 20

# Candlestick data
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --klines 1h --limit 100

# Recent trades
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --trades --limit 100

# Funding rate (futures)
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --funding

# All data at once
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --all

# JSON output (for piping)
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --json > btc_data.json
```

**Intervals**: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 4h, 1d, 1w

### 2. Technical Analysis (`technical_analysis.py`)

Calculate and interpret technical indicators.

**Use when**: User asks for TA, indicators, buy/sell signals, or market analysis.

**Common commands**:
```bash
# Full analysis (default: 1h timeframe, 200 candles)
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT

# Different timeframe
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT --interval 4h

# Custom RSI period
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT --rsi-period 21

# From saved klines JSON
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --input btc_klines.json

# JSON output
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT --json
```

**What it analyzes**:
- Trend direction (SMA 20/50, EMA 12/26)
- RSI (14) - overbought/oversold
- MACD - momentum and crossovers
- Bollinger Bands - volatility and position
- Support/resistance levels
- Volume analysis
- Trading signals and recommendations

### 3. DCA Calculator (`dca_calculator.py`)

Plan Dollar Cost Averaging strategies.

**Use when**: User wants to set up DCA, calculate investment schedules, or compare strategies.

**Common commands**:
```bash
# Basic DCA plan
python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180

# With current price for projections
python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 10000 --frequency monthly --duration 365 --current-price 100000

# Show scenario analysis
python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 --current-price 100000 --scenarios

# Custom start date
python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 --start-date 2026-03-01

# JSON output
python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 --json
```

**Frequencies**: daily, weekly, biweekly, monthly

**Output includes**:
- Purchase schedule with dates and amounts
- Number of purchases and amount per purchase
- Scenario analysis (flat, bull, bear markets)
- Comparison to lump sum approach

### 4. Position Sizer (`position_sizer.py`)

Calculate safe position sizes using risk management rules.

**Use when**: User wants to enter a trade and needs to know position size, stop loss, or take profit levels.

**Common commands**:
```bash
# Basic position sizing (2% risk recommended)
python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 95000

# Conservative 1% risk
python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 1 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 97000

# Custom take-profit ratios
python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 95000 --take-profit 2 3 5

# Ladder strategy (scaling in)
python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 95000 --ladder 3

# JSON output
python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry 100000 --stop-loss 95000 --json
```

**Output includes**:
- Position size in units and dollar value
- Risk amount in dollars
- Stop loss percentage
- Take profit levels at multiple R:R ratios
- Position as percentage of account
- Warnings if position too large

**Rules**:
- Conservative: Risk 1% per trade
- Moderate: Risk 2% per trade
- Never exceed 3% risk per trade
- Position should be <50% of account

### 5. Market Scanner (`market_scanner.py`)

Scan all Binance USDT pairs for opportunities.

**Use when**: User wants to find top movers, volume spikes, or new opportunities.

**Common commands**:
```bash
# Full market scan (default)
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py

# Top gainers only
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --gainers --limit 20

# High volume pairs
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --volume

# Most volatile pairs
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --volatile

# Breakout candidates (near 24h high with volume)
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --breakout

# Filter by minimum volume
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --min-volume 500000

# JSON output
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --json
```

**Categories scanned**:
- Top gainers (24h price change)
- Top losers (24h price change)
- Highest volume pairs
- Most volatile pairs (high-low spread)
- Potential breakouts (near 24h high + volume)

### 6. Whale Tracker (`whale_tracker.py`)

Monitor large trades and orderbook imbalances.

**Use when**: User asks about whale activity, large orders, or orderbook pressure.

**Common commands**:
```bash
# Full whale analysis (default)
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT

# Large trades only
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --trades

# Orderbook imbalances only
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --orderbook

# Custom orderbook depth
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --orderbook --depth 50

# Adjust threshold (default 90th percentile)
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --threshold 95

# JSON output
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT --json
```

**Output includes**:
- Large trades (top 10% by value)
- Buy vs sell pressure from large trades
- Orderbook bid/ask imbalance
- Orderbook walls (large orders)
- Market sentiment (bullish/bearish/neutral)

## Quick Start Workflows

### "What's BTC doing?"
```bash
# Get overview
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --ticker

# Technical analysis
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT --interval 1h
```

### "Should I buy now?"
```bash
# Check technicals first
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol BTCUSDT

# Check whale activity
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT

# If signals look good, calculate position size
python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --balance 10000 --risk 2 --entry <CURRENT_PRICE> --stop-loss <SUPPORT_LEVEL>
```

### "Set up a DCA plan"
```bash
# Plan the strategy
python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --total 5000 --frequency weekly --duration 180 --current-price <CURRENT_PRICE> --scenarios

# Show them the schedule and explain
```

### "Find me opportunities"
```bash
# Scan market
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py

# For interesting pairs, do deeper analysis
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --symbol <PAIR>
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol <PAIR>
```

### "What's the market sentiment?"
```bash
# Check whale activity
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --symbol BTCUSDT

# Check volume and volatility
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --volume --volatile
```

## Reference Materials

Located in `references/` directory:

### `binance-api.md`
- API endpoints and parameters
- Rate limits
- Authentication for signed requests
- Order types and time-in-force
- Error codes
- Python examples

**Use when**: Need API details, building custom queries, or troubleshooting

### `indicators.md`
- Technical indicator formulas
- Interpretation guidelines
- Common settings per timeframe
- Combining indicators
- Reliability assessment
- Common mistakes

**Use when**: Explaining indicators, interpreting signals, or educating user

### `strategies.md`
- DCA variations (fixed, value-based, RSI-based, ladder)
- Risk management (1-2% rule, stop loss strategies)
- Trend following strategies
- Entry/exit strategies
- Position sizing examples
- Performance tracking

**Use when**: Planning trades, explaining strategies, or risk management questions

## Trading Guidance

### For Conservative Traders

**DCA Approach**:
- Start with weekly or monthly purchases
- Fixed amount: $50-200 per purchase
- Duration: 6-12 months minimum
- Don't try to time the market
- Accumulate and hold long-term

**Risk Management**:
- No leverage
- 50%+ of account in cash/stablecoins
- Risk 1% per trade maximum
- Only trade with 3+ confirmations
- Stop losses always active

### For Moderate Risk Traders

**Enhanced DCA**:
- Adjust amounts based on RSI (buy more when oversold)
- Use technical analysis for better entries
- 60-70% DCA, 30-40% active trading
- Risk 2% per trade on active positions

**Position Trading**:
- Wait for confluence of indicators
- Use position_sizer.py for every trade
- Risk:Reward ratio minimum 2:1
- Trail stops as profit grows

### Red Flags (Don't Trade)

- RSI >70 and rising (overbought)
- Low volume breakout (likely false)
- Against major trend (don't short bull market)
- Multiple indicators conflicting
- No clear support level for stop loss
- Risk:Reward ratio <1.5:1
- During extreme fear or greed

## Response Format

When user asks for analysis:

1. **Current State**: Price, trend, key levels
2. **Technical View**: Indicator readings and what they mean
3. **Sentiment**: Whale activity, volume, market pressure
4. **Recommendation**: Buy/wait/sell with reasoning
5. **Risk Management**: Position size, stop loss, take profit if applicable
6. **Caveats**: What could go wrong, alternative scenarios

Always include:
- Specific numbers (don't just say "oversold", say "RSI at 28")
- Risk warnings for trades
- Clear next steps
- Timeframe context (day trade vs swing trade vs long-term)

## Important Notes

### API Access
- All scripts use Binance public API (no authentication needed for data)
- Respect rate limits (built into scripts)
- If API blocked by geo-restrictions, scripts will error gracefully

### Limitations
- **No trading execution**: These tools are for research only
- **No real-time WebSocket**: Data is snapshot-based (REST API)
- **No futures-specific features**: Primarily spot market focused (except funding rates)
- **No backtesting engine**: Manual strategy evaluation

### Authentication Required For
- Placing orders
- Checking account balance
- Viewing open orders
- Accessing trade history

**Note**: Guide users to Binance API documentation (see `references/binance-api.md`) for authenticated trading setup.

## Error Handling

If script fails:
1. Check internet connection
2. Verify symbol format (uppercase, e.g., BTCUSDT not btc-usdt)
3. Check if Binance API accessible in user's location
4. Verify script path and Python availability
5. Check for typos in parameters

Common errors:
- **HTTP 451**: API blocked in location (suggest VPN)
- **Invalid symbol**: Check symbol exists on Binance
- **Rate limit**: Wait 60 seconds and retry
- **Connection timeout**: Network issue or API down

## Best Practices

1. **Always show your work**: Display the command you ran
2. **Interpret results**: Don't just dump data, explain what it means
3. **Context matters**: Different advice for day trade vs DCA accumulation
4. **Risk first**: Mention risk management before entry signals
5. **Be honest**: If indicators conflict, say so
6. **Update knowledge**: If market conditions changed, acknowledge it
7. **No predictions**: Frame as "if X then Y", not "X will happen"
8. **Show alternatives**: Bull and bear case scenarios

## Skill Maintenance

### Testing
Run each script monthly to ensure API compatibility:
```bash
python3 scripts/binance_market.py --symbol BTCUSDT --help
python3 scripts/technical_analysis.py --help
python3 scripts/dca_calculator.py --help
python3 scripts/position_sizer.py --help
python3 scripts/market_scanner.py --help
python3 scripts/whale_tracker.py --help
```

### Updates Needed If
- Binance changes API endpoints
- New technical indicators requested
- Additional risk management tools needed
- User feedback suggests improvements

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**Remember**: This skill helps users make informed decisions. It does not make decisions for them. Always emphasize personal responsibility and risk disclosure.