proxima424

permissionless prediction markets

專業領域v1.0.0
作者:proxima424更新於 2026-05-18create-prediction-markets@clawhub_proxima424/create-prediction-markets
行業研究

據 AlphaMoat 統計,截至 2026-09,permissionless prediction markets 累計下載 3,612 次、獲 1 個星標,在全部 5,078 個 AI 技能中排名第 3,010 位,在「專業領域」分類(465 個)中排名第 247 位。

累計安裝
236
累計下載
3612
星標
1
全站排名
#3,010
全站前 60% · 「專業領域」前 54%
平台累計安裝累計下載星標評論
ClawHub ↗11734501-
SkillHub ↗23636121—

各平台的計數口徑不同,統計時間不一致。

這個技能是做什麼的

該技能在 Base 主網上用任意 ERC20 抵押品建立、交易、結算和贖回預測市場:透過 create-market.ts(問題、時長、流動性、抵押品)、trade.ts(買賣 YES/NO 或檢視價格)、settle.ts(結束後結算)、redeem.ts(贖回 winnings)四個指令碼操作,需匯出 PRIVATE_KEY(RPC_URL 可選);也提供 PNPClient 的 TypeScript 程式設計介面,USDC/WETH/cbETH 等 Base 常用代幣可直接做抵押品。 簽名可能轉移資金或改變鏈上狀態;簽名前應核對網路、資產、金額、滑點和接收地址,並取得使用者明確確認。

資料釋出於 2026-10-27

可以用來做什麼

  • 建立預測市場:設定問題、持續時間、初始流動性與抵押代幣
  • 用 trade.ts 買入/賣出 YES 或 NO 代幣,或只查價格
  • 市場結束後用 settle.ts 按結果結算
  • 用 redeem.ts 贖回獲勝倉位
  • 用 PNPClient 在 TypeScript 中程式設計化建立、交易、結算、贖回

什麼時候用

  • 構建預測市場基礎設施、舉辦競猜或眾包機率估計時
  • 為代幣增加實用場景、讓持有者參與自定義市場時
  • 需要基於市場的預測(資訊金融)工作流時

示例提示詞

以下是根據技能文件生成的示例,不代表實際執行結果。

為我查詢符合條件的候選人,並總結匹配情況
用 trade.ts 以 10 USDC 買入這個市場的 YES,先看一眼當前價格
這個市場已到期且結果是 YES,幫我結算並贖回

月度資料趨勢

累計下載3612
2475308636962026-03 · 累計下載 25592026-05 · 累計下載 29722026-07 · 累計下載 32962026-08 · 累計下載 33762026-09 · 累計下載 361226-0326-09
星標1
0122026-03 · 星標 12026-05 · 星標 12026-07 · 星標 12026-08 · 星標 12026-09 · 星標 126-0326-09

2026-09 起統計方法調整:同名技能按作者分別統計,並覆蓋全部技能。圖中虛線為調整前的月份,與之後的資料不直接比較,也不計算跨越調整的增長。

月份累計下載環比星標
2026-093612—1
2026-083376+2.4%1
2026-073296—1
2026-052972—1
2026-032559—1

SKILL.md 原文

以下是作者釋出的原始檔案,按純文字顯示,本站未做修改或稽核;其中的連結不可點選,命令請核實後再執行。抓取於 2026-10-23。

5.7 KB · ClawHub v1.0.0
---
name: pnp-markets
description: Create, trade, and settle prediction markets on Base with any ERC20 collateral. Use when building prediction market infrastructure, running contests, crowdsourcing probability estimates, adding utility to tokens, or tapping into true information finance via market-based forecasting.
---

# PNP Markets

Create and manage prediction markets on Base Mainnet with any ERC20 collateral token.

## Quick Decision
展開全部(共 180 行)

```
Need prediction markets?
├─ Create market     → npx ts-node scripts/create-market.ts --help
├─ Trade (buy/sell)  → npx ts-node scripts/trade.ts --help
├─ Settle market     → npx ts-node scripts/settle.ts --help
└─ Redeem winnings   → npx ts-node scripts/redeem.ts --help
```

## Environment

```bash
export PRIVATE_KEY=<wallet_private_key>    # Required
export RPC_URL=<base_rpc_endpoint>         # Optional (defaults to public RPC)
```

For production, use a dedicated RPC (Alchemy, QuickNode) to avoid rate limits.

## Scripts

Run any script with `--help` first to see all options.

### Create Market

```bash
npx ts-node scripts/create-market.ts \
  --question "Will ETH reach $10k by Dec 2025?" \
  --duration 168 \
  --liquidity 100
```

Options: `--collateral <USDC|WETH|address>`, `--decimals <n>`

### Trade

```bash
# Buy YES tokens
npx ts-node scripts/trade.ts --buy --condition 0x... --outcome YES --amount 10

# Sell NO tokens  
npx ts-node scripts/trade.ts --sell --condition 0x... --outcome NO --amount 5 --decimals 18

# View prices only
npx ts-node scripts/trade.ts --info --condition 0x...
```

### Settle

```bash
# Settle as YES winner
npx ts-node scripts/settle.ts --condition 0x... --outcome YES

# Check status
npx ts-node scripts/settle.ts --status --condition 0x...
```

### Redeem

```bash
npx ts-node scripts/redeem.ts --condition 0x...
```

## Programmatic Usage

```typescript
import { PNPClient } from "pnp-evm";
import { ethers } from "ethers";

const client = new PNPClient({
  rpcUrl: process.env.RPC_URL || "https://mainnet.base.org",
  privateKey: process.env.PRIVATE_KEY!,
});

// Create market
const { conditionId } = await client.market.createMarket({
  question: "Will X happen?",
  endTime: Math.floor(Date.now() / 1000) + 86400 * 7,
  initialLiquidity: ethers.parseUnits("100", 6).toString(),
});

// Trade
await client.trading.buy(conditionId, ethers.parseUnits("10", 6), "YES");

// Settle (after endTime)
const tokenId = await client.trading.getTokenId(conditionId, "YES");
await client.market.settleMarket(conditionId, tokenId);

// Redeem
await client.redemption.redeem(conditionId);
```

## Collateral Tokens

Use any ERC20. Common Base Mainnet tokens:

| Token | Address | Decimals |
|-------|---------|----------|
| USDC | `0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913` | 6 |
| WETH | `0x4200000000000000000000000000000000000006` | 18 |
| cbETH | `0x2Ae3F1Ec7F1F5012CFEab0185bfc7aa3cf0DEc22` | 18 |

Custom tokens add utility—holders can participate in your markets.

## ERC20 Approvals

Before interacting with PNP contracts, you must approve them to spend your collateral tokens. This is standard for all EVM dApps.

### How It Works

1. **First interaction requires approval**: When you create a market or trade for the first time with a token, an approval transaction is sent
2. **Infinite approvals**: The SDK uses `type(uint256).max` approvals (standard EVM pattern) so you only approve once per token
3. **Subsequent interactions**: No approval needed—transactions execute directly

### Timing Considerations

The approval transaction must be confirmed on-chain before the main transaction executes. If you see:

```
ERC20: transfer amount exceeds allowance
```

This means the approval hasn't been mined yet. **Simply wait a few seconds and retry**—the approval will be confirmed and subsequent attempts will succeed.

### Why Infinite Approvals?

- **Gas efficiency**: Approve once, trade forever without extra transactions
- **Better UX**: No repeated approval popups
- **Industry standard**: Used by Uniswap, Aave, and most major DeFi protocols

For maximum security-conscious users, you can manually set specific approval amounts, but this requires an approval transaction before each interaction.

## Contracts

| Contract | Address |
|----------|---------|
| PNP Factory | `0x5E5abF8a083a8E0c2fBf5193E711A61B1797e15A` |
| Fee Manager | `0x6f1BffB36aC53671C9a409A0118cA6fee2b2b462` |

## Why Prediction Markets?

- **Information Discovery**: Market prices reveal collective probability estimates
- **Token Utility**: Use your token as collateral to drive engagement
- **Contests**: Run competitions where participants stake on outcomes
- **Forecasting**: Aggregate crowd wisdom for decision-making

The pAMM virtual liquidity model ensures smooth trading even with minimal initial liquidity.

## Troubleshooting

### "ERC20: transfer amount exceeds allowance"
The approval transaction hasn't been confirmed yet. Wait 5-10 seconds and retry.

### "Market doesn't exist"
The market creation transaction may have failed or is still pending. Verify on BaseScan that your transaction was confirmed successfully.

### "over rate limit" / RPC errors
The public Base RPC has rate limits. Use a dedicated RPC provider:
```bash
export RPC_URL=https://base-mainnet.g.alchemy.com/v2/YOUR_KEY
```

### Transaction stuck or slow
Base Mainnet can occasionally have congestion. Check gas prices and consider increasing if needed.

## Reference Files

- **API Reference**: See [references/api-reference.md](references/api-reference.md) for complete SDK documentation
- **Use Cases**: See [references/use-cases.md](references/use-cases.md) for detailed use case patterns
- **Examples**: See [references/examples.md](references/examples.md) for complete code examples

「專業領域」分類下的熱門技能

資料月份:2026-09 · 下載/星標/安裝數聚合自公開技能註冊庫(ClawHub、SkillHub),按月更新。口徑說明見資料方法。