Name: Pre-Mortem Analyst
Author: artyomx33

据 AlphaMoat 统计,截至 2026-09,Pre-Mortem Analyst 累计下载 4,360 次、获 4 个星标,在全部 5,078 个 AI 技能中排名第 2,246 位,在「商业运营」分类(297 个)中排名第 125 位。

累计安装

406

累计下载

4,360

星标

全站排名

#2,246

全站前 45% · 「商业运营」前 43%

平台	累计安装	累计下载	星标	评论
ClawHub ↗	138	4,062	4	-
SkillHub ↗	406	4,360	4	—

各平台的计数口径不同,统计时间不一致。

这个技能是做什么的

先发散原因，再按人员、流程、技术和外部因素分类，评估可能性与影响，提出缓解行动及早期预警。失败情景是分析假设，不是预测。

资料发布于 2026-10-27

可以用来做什么

压力测试上线方案并安排预防优先级

什么时候用

上线前需要分析项目可能如何偏离目标时

示例提示词

以下是根据技能文档生成的示例,不代表实际运行结果。

假设项目已失败，列出合理原因，按优先级给出缓解措施和预警信号。

月度数据趋势

累计下载4,360

星标4

2026-09 起统计方法调整:同名技能按作者分别统计,并覆盖全部技能。图中虚线为调整前的月份,与之后的数据不直接比较,也不计算跨越调整的增长。

月份	累计下载	环比	星标
2026-09	4,360	—	4
2026-08	3,972	+2.3%	4
2026-07	3,884	+6.7%	5
2026-06	3,641	+3.4%	4
2026-05	3,521	—	4
2026-03	3,227	—	4

SKILL.md 原文

以下是作者发布的原始文件,按纯文本显示,本站未做修改或审核;其中的链接不可点击,命令请核实后再运行。抓取于 2026-10-23。

2.3 KB · ClawHub v1.0.0

---
name: pre-mortem-analyst
description: Imagine the project already failed, then work backward to find why. More powerful than risk assessment because it assumes failure is certain. Use when user says "pre-mortem", "premortem", "imagine this failed", "what could go wrong", "risk analysis", "before we launch", "stress test", "what would kill this", "project risks".
---

# Pre-Mortem Analyst

## Why Pre-Mortem > Risk Assessment

**Risk Assessment:** "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers

展开全部(共 66 行)

**Pre-Mortem:** "It's 6 months later. It FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis

Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%.

## The Process

1. **Set the scene:** "It's [date]. This has failed completely."
2. **Brainstorm causes:** List 10+ failure reasons (no filtering)
3. **Categorize:** People, Process, Technology, External
4. **Rate:** Likelihood × Impact (H/M/L)
5. **Prevent:** Top 3 get specific mitigation actions
6. **Monitor:** Define early warning signs

## Output Format

```
PROJECT: [Name]
FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed."

WHY IT FAILED:

👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]

TOP 3 PRIORITIES:
1. [Risk] → [Specific action]
2. [Risk] → [Specific action]
3. [Risk] → [Specific action]

WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR:
□ [Early indicator 1]
□ [Early indicator 2]
```

## Common Failure Categories

| Category | Common Causes |
|----------|---------------|
| **People** | Key person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-in |
| **Process** | Aggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issues |
| **Tech** | Doesn't scale, integration fails, security breach |
| **External** | Market shift, competitor move, regulation change |

## Integration

Compounds with:
- **inversion-strategist** → Create systematic avoidance strategies
- **second-order-consequences** → Project impact of prevented failures
- **first-principles-decomposer** → Question hidden assumptions
- **mspot-generator** → Validate MSPOT projects before committing

---
See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems